Estadio Complejo Deportivo Moca 85 · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
El Salvador W vs Dominican Republic W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for El Salvador W and 0.90 for Dominican Republic W, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives El Salvador W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
El Salvador W win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
El Salvador W home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates El Salvador W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for El Salvador W and 0.90 for Dominican Republic W, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
El Salvador W
- 2026-10-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica W · 1-0 (W)
Dominican Republic W
- 2026-08-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Rica W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs El Salvador W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico U23 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Haiti W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Central American and Caribbean Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 |
| 2 | Venezuela W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | El Salvador W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 4 | Colombia W | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 5 | Puerto Rico W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Costa Rica W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 7 | Dominican Republic W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Jamaica W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is El Salvador W win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.