· Analysis updated 12:27 UTC
Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Elana Toruń and 1.57 for Unia Swarzędz, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Unia Swarzędz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elana Toruń home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Unia Swarzędz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 65.5% | 67.7% | 1.48 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.85 | 31.2% | 32.4% | 3.09 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 42.3% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.05 | 43.8% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.4% | 75.5% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.60 | 56.2% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 26.5% | 24.6% | 4.07 | -1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 59.1% | 57.0% | 1.75 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Elana Toruń
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzino · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:08:00.000Z · H vs Wda Świecie · 1-2 (L)
Unia Swarzędz
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kotwica Kórnik · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flota Świnoujście · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzino · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Środa · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 2-3 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 0-4 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2025-10-31T12:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 1-0 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2025-05-21T15:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 0-0 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 1-1 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2024-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 2-2 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2023-10-14T11:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 0-0 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2021-03-13T16:00:00.000Z · Elana Toruń 1-0 Unia Swarzędz (III Liga - Group 2)
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Luzino | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Kalisz | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.