· Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Elassona vs Sarakinos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Elassona and 0.70 for Sarakinos, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Elassona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Elassona win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elassona home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarakinos away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elassona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Elassona and 0.70 for Sarakinos, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 2–013.4%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.0%
Recent form
Elassona
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feraios · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anthoupoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis Exochi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 2-3 (L)
Sarakinos
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pierikos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Karitsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozani · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthoupoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Trikala | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Ermis Exochi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Elassona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Pierikos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karitsa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Feraios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sarakinos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Digenis Neochori | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Iraklis Larissa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elassona win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.