Elazig Ataturk Stadyumu · Analysis updated 17:07 UTC
Elazığspor vs Aliağa FAŞ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Elazığspor and 1.27 for Aliağa FAŞ, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Elazığspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Elazığspor win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elazığspor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aliağa FAŞ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elazığspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Elazığspor and 1.27 for Aliağa FAŞ, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Elazığspor
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Güzide Gebzespor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aliağa FAŞ · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Adana Demirspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sebat Gençlikspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Muğlaspor · 0-0 (D)
Aliağa FAŞ
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Somaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Menemen FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erbaaspor · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Şanlıurfaspor · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aliağa FAŞ | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Muş Sport Klübü | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Güzide Gebzespor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Şanlıurfaspor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Çorluspor 1947 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Isparta 32 Spor | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Erbaaspor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Menemen FK | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Somaspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Kastamonuspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 4 |
| 16 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | |
| 1 | Sakaryaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Yeni Orduspor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Adana 01 FK | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Ankara Demirspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | 24 Erzincanspor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | 1461 Trabzon FK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Karacabey Belediyespor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 Bingölspor | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Kütahyaspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Ankaragücü | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Fethiyespor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 | Kırklarelispor | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | İnegölspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serik Spor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | İskenderunspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elazığspor win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.