· Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Elche vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Elche and 2.03 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Athletic Club the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Athletic Club win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elche home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Athletic Club to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Elche and 2.03 for Athletic Club, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Elche
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Athletic Club win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.