Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero · Referee J. Manzano · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Elche vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Elche and 2.61 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Madrid win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.61
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elche home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.9%
- 0–310.4%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 51.6% vs market 43.7%, edge +7.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.7% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +7.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 4.40 | 21.8% | 22.7% | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.05 | 91.2% | 91.8% | 1.09 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.50 | 14.3% | 14.4% | 6.94 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.20 | 77.3% | 77.4% | 1.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 11.00 | 8.4% | 8.3% | 12.05 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 87.0% | 85.7% | 1.17 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 56.3% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -7.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Elche
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
Real Madrid
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · Elche 2-3 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2026-03-14T20:00:00.000Z · Elche 1-4 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2025-11-23T20:00:00.000Z · Elche 2-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2023-02-15T20:00:00.000Z · Elche 0-4 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2022-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · Elche 0-3 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2022-01-23T15:15:00.000Z · Elche 2-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2022-01-20T18:00:00.000Z · Elche 1-2 Real Madrid (Copa del Rey)
- 2021-10-30T12:00:00.000Z · Elche 1-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2021-03-13T15:15:00.000Z · Elche 1-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 2020-12-30T20:30:00.000Z · Elche 1-1 Real Madrid (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Madrid win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.