Eldense vs Cadiz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Eldense and 1.10 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Eldense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eldense home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eldense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Eldense and 1.10 for Cadiz, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Eldense win40%

Draw28%

Cadiz win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–011.9%
0–110.3%
0–09.4%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Eldense

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oviedo · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 1-0 (W)

Cadiz

2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T19:30:00.000Z · Eldense 2-2 Cadiz (Segunda División)
2025-01-18T15:15:00.000Z · Eldense 1-4 Cadiz (Segunda División)
2024-12-04T19:00:00.000Z · Eldense 1-0 Cadiz (Copa del Rey)
2024-09-28T14:15:00.000Z · Eldense 2-1 Cadiz (Segunda División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Almeria	9	7	0	2	11	21
2	Eibar	9	7	0	2	9	21
3	Castellón	9	6	2	1	11	20
4	Mallorca	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Sabadell	9	4	4	1	3	16
6	Sporting Gijon	9	5	1	3	1	16
7	Girona	9	4	3	2	6	15
8	Burgos	9	4	2	3	2	14
9	Oviedo	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Granada CF	9	4	2	3	1	14
11	Valladolid	9	3	3	3	2	12
12	Tenerife	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Celta de Vigo II	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Eldense	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	-3	11
16	Leganes	9	3	2	4	-8	11
17	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	-2	10
18	Cordoba	9	3	0	6	-6	9
19	Real Sociedad II	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Cadiz	9	1	4	4	0	7
21	AD Ceuta FC	9	1	2	6	-12	5
22	Albacete	9	0	1	8	-15	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.