Estadio Municipal de Ponte de Sôr · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Eléctrico vs Marinhense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Eléctrico and 1.53 for Marinhense, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Eléctrico the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eléctrico win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eléctrico home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marinhense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eléctrico to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Eléctrico and 1.53 for Marinhense, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Eléctrico
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fátima · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samora Correir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Peniche · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-5 (L)
Marinhense
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitânia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UD da Serra · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eléctrico win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.