Borough Briggs · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Elgin City vs Clyde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Elgin City and 1.18 for Clyde, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Elgin City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elgin City home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Clyde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 51.2% vs market 40.3%, edge +10.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 51.2% | 1.95 | +10.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 61.7% | 62.9% | 1.59 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.7% | 35.2% | 2.84 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.5% | 27.7% | 3.61 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 37.8% | 37.1% | 2.70 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.6% | 64.8% | 1.54 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 48.8% | 2.05 | -10.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Elgin City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annan Athletic · 0-2 (L)
Clyde
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cowdenbeath · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rangers U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stirling Albion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kelty Hearts · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 6-2 Clyde (League Two)
- 2026-03-28T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 2-0 Clyde (League Two)
- 2026-02-10T19:45:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-1 Clyde (League Two)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-1 Clyde (League Two)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 0-0 Clyde (League Two)
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 2-0 Clyde (League Two)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 0-0 Clyde (League Two)
- 2024-12-17T19:45:00.000Z · Elgin City 4-2 Clyde (League Two)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-1 Clyde (FA Cup)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 0-0 Clyde (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.