Borough Briggs · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Elgin City vs Stranraer Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Elgin City and 1.63 for Stranraer, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Elgin City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Elgin City win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elgin City home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stranraer away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Elgin City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clyde · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterhead · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stranraer · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annan Athletic · 0-2 (L)
Stranraer
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbarton · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-5 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 0-1 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 2-1 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-2 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-1 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 3-0 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2025-02-15T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 0-1 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-0 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2024-08-24T14:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 1-1 Stranraer (League Two)
- 2024-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · Elgin City 2-1 Stranraer (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elgin City win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.