· Analysis updated 04:36 UTC
Ellas Syros vs Apollon Pontou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ellas Syros and 0.71 for Apollon Pontou, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Ellas Syros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ellas Syros win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ellas Syros home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Apollon Pontou away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ellas Syros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Ellas Syros and 0.71 for Apollon Pontou, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Ellas Syros
- 2026-10-05T11:45:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyrgos 1968 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zakynthos · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Anagennisi Karditsas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 2-2 (D)
Apollon Pontou
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · Ellas Syros 2-2 Apollon Pontou (Super League 2)
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Kallithea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Panserraikos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Panionios | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Larisa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Niki Volos | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Ellas Syros | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Panthrakikos | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Apollon Pontou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | PAOK II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Zakynthos | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ellas Syros win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.