· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Ellerton vs Weymouth Wales Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ellerton and 1.30 for Weymouth Wales, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Ellerton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ellerton home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Weymouth Wales away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Ellerton
- 2026-05-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Brittons Hill · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradise · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Andrew Lions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth Wales · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Bagatelle · 1-1 (D)
Weymouth Wales
- 2026-07-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Britannia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Pride of Gall Hill · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Kick Start · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs UWI Blackbirds · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-04T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 1-2 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2026-02-16T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 1-0 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2025-03-24T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 2-4 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2025-01-20T00:30:00.000Z · Ellerton 1-2 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2024-06-01T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 0-1 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2024-04-02T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 1-1 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2023-07-17T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 3-0 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
- 2023-02-06T00:00:00.000Z · Ellerton 0-2 Weymouth Wales (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weymouth Wales | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 56 | 49 |
| 2 | Brittons Hill | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 33 |
| 3 | Ellerton | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 4 | UWI Blackbirds | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Pride of Gall Hill | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Kick Start | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Paradise | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Wotton | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 18 |
| 9 | Deacons | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -31 | 17 |
| 10 | Silver Sands | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | -59 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.