· Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Eltersdorf vs TSV 1860 München Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Eltersdorf and 1.74 for TSV 1860 München, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives TSV 1860 München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eltersdorf home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSV 1860 München to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Eltersdorf and 1.74 for TSV 1860 München, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Eltersdorf
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wacker Burghausen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Schweinfurt 05 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buchbach · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayreuth · 2-4 (L)
TSV 1860 München
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.