· Analysis updated 01:39 UTC
Eltham Redbacks FC vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Eltham Redbacks FC and 1.29 for North Geelong Warriors, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives Eltham Redbacks FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Eltham Redbacks FC win
68.9% probability
Expected goals
2.80 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Geelong Warriors away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eltham Redbacks FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 16% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.80 goals for Eltham Redbacks FC and 1.29 for North Geelong Warriors, a combined 4.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 68%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.6%
- 3–06.1%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
Eltham Redbacks FC
North Geelong Warriors
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Langwarrin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Western United II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:15:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulleen Lions · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Victoria NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 53 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 46 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 39 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | -2 | 33 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 32 |
| 10 | Langwarrin | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -20 | 30 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Western United II | 26 | 8 | 1 | 17 | -26 | 25 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -44 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eltham Redbacks FC win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.