Nike Arena · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Elva vs Flora II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Elva and 1.80 for Flora II, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Flora II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elva home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Flora II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flora II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Elva and 1.80 for Flora II, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.6%
Recent form
Elva
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 0-5 (L)
Flora II
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tallinn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trans Narva · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 32 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Elva | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 5 | Flora II | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 48 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 43 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -35 | 35 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -42 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.