Elva vs Tallinna Kalev Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Elva and 1.38 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Elva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Elva win

47.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Elva home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tallinna Kalev away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Elva and 1.38 for Tallinna Kalev, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Elva win47%

Draw23%

Tallinna Kalev win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.3%
1–07.5%
1–27.2%
2–06.7%

Recent form

Elva

2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tallinn · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)

Tallinna Kalev

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Flora II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Esiliiga A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	33	22	5	6	54	71
2	Viimsi	33	17	6	10	29	57
3	FCI Levadia II	32	16	2	14	8	50
4	Elva	32	14	7	11	-1	49
5	Flora II	31	14	6	11	18	48
6	Maardu	30	12	7	11	-12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	10	7	14	-5	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	10	6	16	-14	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	9	8	16	-35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	6	6	21	-42	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Elva win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.