· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Elversberg II vs Schott Mainz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Elversberg II and 2.35 for Schott Mainz, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Schott Mainz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schott Mainz win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elversberg II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schott Mainz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schott Mainz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 20% / 19% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Elversberg II and 2.35 for Schott Mainz, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
Elversberg II
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Auersmacher · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Ahrweiler · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirmasens · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS RW Koblenz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cosmos Koblenz · 1-2 (L)
Schott Mainz
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gau-Odernheim · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RW Wittlich · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Elversberg II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonsenheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Auersmacher · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mechtersheim | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Schott Mainz | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 29 |
| 3 | Pirmasens | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 27 |
| 4 | Gonsenheim | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 25 |
| 5 | Gau-Odernheim | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | TuS RW Koblenz | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | FV Engers 07 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 8 | TuS Koblenz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Emmelshausen-Karbach | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Wormatia Worms | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | RW Wittlich | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 21 |
| 12 | Elversberg II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 13 | Hertha Wiesbach | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Auersmacher | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Cosmos Koblenz | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Ahrweiler | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 | Diefflen | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -22 | 8 |
| 18 | Eisbachtal | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | -42 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schott Mainz win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.