· Analysis updated 11:17 UTC
Elversberg U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Elversberg U19 and 2.14 for Bayer Leverkusen U19, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen U19 win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elversberg U19 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Elversberg U19 and 2.14 for Bayer Leverkusen U19, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–27.0%
- 1–36.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Elversberg U19
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 · 0-2 (L)
Bayer Leverkusen U19
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Saarbrücken U19 · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'bach U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hildesheim U19 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen U19 win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.