Elverum vs Bjørkelangen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.83 expected goals for Elverum and 1.53 for Bjørkelangen, a combined total of 5.35. That distribution gives Elverum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Elverum win

78.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.83 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Elverum home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bjørkelangen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elverum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 11% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.83 goals for Elverum and 1.53 for Bjørkelangen, a combined 5.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Elverum win78%

Draw11%

Bjørkelangen win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals76%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

3–16.8%
4–16.5%
2–15.3%
3–25.1%
5–14.9%

Recent form

Elverum

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord II · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Raufoss · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 2-4 (L)

Bjørkelangen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 1-7 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Drøbak / Frogn · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillehammer · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brumunddal · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lillehammer	25	19	2	4	56	59
2	Elverum	25	17	2	6	31	53
3	Råde	25	14	4	7	45	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	25	14	2	9	20	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	25	12	5	8	20	41
6	Ørn Horten	25	11	5	9	7	38
7	Raelingen	25	11	5	9	-6	38
8	Lyn II	24	10	4	10	1	34
9	Oppsal	24	10	3	11	2	33
10	Sandefjord II	24	10	3	11	1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	9	5	10	4	32
12	Fram	25	8	5	12	-9	29
13	Brumunddal	25	3	3	19	-83	12
14	Bjørkelangen	25	1	0	24	-89	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Elverum win, at 78.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.