Elverum vs Lillehammer Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Elverum and 2.33 for Lillehammer, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Lillehammer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Elverum home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lillehammer away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Elverum win37%

Draw20%

Lillehammer win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–27.1%
1–26.7%
2–16.1%
1–15.8%
2–35.5%

Recent form

Elverum

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord II · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Raufoss · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 2-4 (L)

Lillehammer

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · Elverum 4-3 Lillehammer (3. Division - Girone 6)
2026-06-27T12:00:00.000Z · Elverum 2-2 Lillehammer (3. Division - Girone 6)
2025-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Elverum 3-0 Lillehammer (3. Division - Girone 3)
2025-06-15T13:00:00.000Z · Elverum 5-1 Lillehammer (3. Division - Girone 3)
2022-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · Elverum 1-1 Lillehammer (3. Division - Girone 2)
2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Elverum 2-0 Lillehammer (3. Division - Girone 2)

3. Division - Girone 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lillehammer	22	17	2	3	51	53
2	Elverum	22	14	2	6	25	44
3	Råde	21	12	3	6	30	39
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	12	2	8	16	38
5	Drøbak / Frogn	22	10	5	7	19	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	10	5	7	9	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	10	3	9	8	33
8	Oppsal	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	Raelingen	22	9	4	9	-15	31
10	Lyn II	21	9	3	9	0	30
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	8	4	10	-3	28
12	Fram	22	6	5	11	-10	23
13	Brumunddal	22	3	3	16	-63	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	1	0	21	-71	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.