· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Elverum vs Raufoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Elverum and 1.72 for Raufoss, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives Elverum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Elverum win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Elverum home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Raufoss away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elverum to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Elverum and 1.72 for Raufoss, a combined 4.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.8%
Recent form
Elverum
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Raufoss · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 2-4 (L)
Raufoss
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stromsgodset · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ODD Ballklubb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger · 1-9 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elverum win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.