De Oude Meerdijk · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Emmen vs Den Bosch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Emmen and 1.30 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Emmen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Emmen win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Emmen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Den Bosch away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Emmen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Emmen and 1.30 for Den Bosch, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–07.1%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Emmen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Waalwijk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 1-2 (L)
Den Bosch
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Helmond Sport · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Volendam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitesse · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Eindhoven · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Emmen win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.