Emmen vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Emmen and 2.25 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Emmen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Emmen win

45.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Emmen home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jong AZ away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Emmen win45%

Draw19%

Jong AZ win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.8%
2–16.1%
3–25.7%
1–25.5%
2–35.1%

Recent form

Emmen

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Waalwijk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 1-2 (L)

Jong AZ

2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Volendam · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong PSV U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heracles · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 6-3 (W)
2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Utrecht · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2026-03-09T19:00:00.000Z · Emmen 3-2 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2025-11-28T19:00:00.000Z · Emmen 4-2 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2025-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · Emmen 1-4 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2024-12-13T19:00:00.000Z · Emmen 1-1 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2024-04-08T18:00:00.000Z · Emmen 2-3 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2023-10-27T18:00:00.000Z · Emmen 2-1 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2022-04-08T18:00:00.000Z · Emmen 3-0 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2021-11-22T19:00:00.000Z · Emmen 0-0 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)
2018-03-09T19:00:00.000Z · Emmen 0-2 Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-7	7
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-7	7
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Emmen win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.