Empoli vs Arezzo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Empoli and 1.20 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Empoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Empoli win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Empoli home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arezzo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Empoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Empoli and 1.20 for Arezzo, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Empoli win50%

Draw24%

Arezzo win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.6%
1–09.2%
2–08.0%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Empoli

2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Modena · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mantova · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 1-0 (W)

Arezzo

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Empoli · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Hellas Verona · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palermo · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avellino · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	7	16
2	Mantova	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Modena	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	6	12
5	Ascoli	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Avellino	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Pisa	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Benevento	6	3	1	2	3	10
9	Hellas Verona	6	2	1	3	2	7
10	Padova	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Cesena	6	1	4	1	-1	7
12	Arezzo	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	6
14	Virtus Entella	6	1	3	2	1	6
15	Cremonese	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Vicenza Virtus	6	1	2	3	-6	5
17	Carrarese	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Catanzaro	6	1	0	5	-6	3
20	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	-3	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Empoli win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.