Carlo Castellani · Referee Livio Marinelli, Italy · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC
Empoli vs Palermo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Empoli and 1.43 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Palermo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palermo win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Empoli home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Palermo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palermo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Empoli and 1.43 for Palermo, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.4%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Empoli
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Modena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mantova · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 1-0 (W)
Palermo
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Avellino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mantova · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arezzo · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palermo win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.