· Analysis updated 15:19 UTC
Empoli vs Spezia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Empoli and 1.41 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Spezia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spezia win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Empoli home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spezia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spezia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Empoli and 1.41 for Spezia, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Empoli
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Modena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mantova · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 1-0 (W)
Spezia
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Perugia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Livorno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sambenedettese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vado · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spezia win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.