Stadio Carlo Castellani · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Empoli and 1.30 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Empoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Empoli win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Empoli home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vicenza Virtus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Empoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Empoli and 1.30 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Empoli
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Modena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mantova · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 1-0 (W)
Vicenza Virtus
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Koper · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hellas Verona · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Entella · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Avellino · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Sudtirol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Pisa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Benevento | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Empoli win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.