· Analysis updated 20:55 UTC
Empor Glauchau vs Dresden II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Empor Glauchau and 2.50 for Dresden II, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Dresden II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dresden II win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Empor Glauchau home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dresden II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dresden II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 11% / 16% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Empor Glauchau and 2.50 for Dresden II, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–39.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–37.8%
Recent form
Empor Glauchau
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Budissa Bautzen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Plauen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Halle · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Germania Halberstadt · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ZFC Meuselwitz · 0-2 (L)
Dresden II
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Empor Glauchau · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Einheit Wernigerode · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Auerbach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Einheit Rudolstadt · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eilenburg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZFC Meuselwitz | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Germania Halberstadt | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Auerbach | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | Eilenburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | VfL Halle | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Weissenfels | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Dresden II | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Sandersdorf | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Plauen | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | SC Freital | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Budissa Bautzen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Einheit Wernigerode | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Empor Glauchau | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Krieschow | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 5 |
| 15 | Einheit Rudolstadt | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 3 |
| 16 | FC Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dresden II win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.