LEAG Energie Stadion · Referee R. Braun · Analysis updated 17:14 UTC
Energie Cottbus vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.79 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Energie Cottbus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Energie Cottbus home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Energie Cottbus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.79 for FC Augsburg, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.2%
Recent form
Energie Cottbus
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-4 (L)
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.