· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Energie Cottbus vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.56 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Energie Cottbus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Energie Cottbus win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Energie Cottbus home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Energie Cottbus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.56 for Werder Bremen, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Energie Cottbus
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lech Poznan · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC St. Pauli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-4 (L)
Werder Bremen
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Energie Cottbus win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.