· Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
England U20 vs Japan U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for England U20 and 1.64 for Japan U20, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Japan U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
England U20 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Japan U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for England U20 and 1.64 for Japan U20, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
England U20
- 2026-03-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2025-11-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Japan U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Italy U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-03-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugal U20 · 1-1 (D)
Japan U20
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa U23 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yemen U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia U20 · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.