Inter&Co Stadium · Referee Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa, Argentina · Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
England vs Costa Rica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for England and 1.30 for Costa Rica, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives England the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
England win
65.5% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
England home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Costa Rica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates England to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for England and 1.30 for Costa Rica, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–16.8%
- 3–06.0%
Recent form
England
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Czechia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Czechia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 6-4 (W)
Costa Rica
- 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Haiti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Nicaragua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Curaçao · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is England win, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.