Wembley Stadium · Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk · Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
England vs Czechia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for England and 0.52 for Czechia, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives England the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
England win
83.5% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 0.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
England home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates England to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 12% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for England and 0.52 for Czechia, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 38%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.4%
- 3–013.1%
- 1–010.6%
- 4–09.0%
- 2–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 62.2% vs market 55.7%, edge +6.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +6.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.02 | 94.2% | 95.2% | 1.05 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 6.00 | 16.0% | 16.5% | 6.06 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 8.00 | 11.6% | 11.7% | 8.55 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.11 | 83.5% | 83.5% | 1.20 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 19.00 | 4.9% | 4.8% | 20.83 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.07 | 89.8% | 88.3% | 1.13 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 37.8% | 2.65 | -6.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
England
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Czechia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Czechia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 6-4 (W)
Czechia
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs England · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs England · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-25T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · England 2-0 Czechia (UEFA Nations League)
- 2021-06-22T19:00:00.000Z · England 1-0 Czechia (Euro Championship)
- 2019-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · England 1-2 Czechia (Euro Championship)
- 2019-03-22T19:45:00.000Z · England 5-0 Czechia (Euro Championship)
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 1 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| 2 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is England win, at 83.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.