Wembley Stadium · Referee N. Walsh · Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
England vs Japan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for England and 1.45 for Japan, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives England the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
England win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
England home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Japan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates England to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for England and 1.45 for Japan, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
England
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Czechia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Croatia · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Czechia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 6-4 (W)
Japan
- 2026-10-05T10:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T10:10:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T10:25:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T10:05:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-31T18:45:00.000Z · England 0-1 Japan (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is England win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.