Tsentralnyi Stadion · Analysis updated 12:43 UTC
Enisey vs Arsenal Tula Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Enisey and 1.20 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Enisey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Enisey win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Enisey home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tula away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Enisey
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor Volgograd · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Druzhba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 0-2 (L)
Arsenal Tula
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KAMAZ · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC UFA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Kostroma · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · Enisey 3-1 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2026-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · Enisey 1-0 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2025-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Enisey 2-2 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2024-11-30T07:00:00.000Z · Enisey 2-0 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2024-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · Enisey 1-2 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2023-11-19T07:00:00.000Z · Enisey 0-2 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2023-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · Enisey 0-2 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2023-03-17T11:30:00.000Z · Enisey 1-0 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2022-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · Enisey 2-2 Arsenal Tula (First League)
- 2019-03-16T16:00:00.000Z · Enisey 0-2 Arsenal Tula (Premier League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Veles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Ural | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 11 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Enisey win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.