Central Stadium (Krasnoyarsk) · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Enisey vs Kaluga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Enisey and 1.68 for Kaluga, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Kaluga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kaluga win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Enisey home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kaluga away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kaluga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 18% / 24% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Enisey and 1.68 for Kaluga, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Enisey
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tula · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotor Volgograd · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Druzhba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 0-2 (L)
Kaluga
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Kirov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Novosibirsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC UFA · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volgar Astrakhan · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kaluga win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.