· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Ennepetal vs Gievenbeck Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ennepetal and 2.27 for Gievenbeck, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Gievenbeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gievenbeck win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ennepetal home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gievenbeck away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–26.3%
Recent form
Ennepetal
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vreden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ASC Dortmund · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hiltrup · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Verl II · 2-2 (D)
Gievenbeck
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vreden · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hiltrup · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Verl II · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · Ennepetal 1-1 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2026-04-06T13:30:00.000Z · Ennepetal 3-2 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2025-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · Ennepetal 1-2 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2025-06-01T13:00:00.000Z · Ennepetal 3-3 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2024-12-08T13:30:00.000Z · Ennepetal 2-5 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2024-03-24T14:00:00.000Z · Ennepetal 0-4 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2023-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · Ennepetal 2-0 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2023-05-21T13:00:00.000Z · Ennepetal 0-3 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
- 2022-12-04T14:00:00.000Z · Ennepetal 2-0 Gievenbeck (Oberliga - Westfalen)
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Vreden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Arminia II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Verl II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 14 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | TuS Hordel | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Victoria Clarholz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Ennepetal | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gievenbeck win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.