Gaddafi Arena · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Entebbe UPPC vs BUL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Entebbe UPPC and 0.73 for BUL, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Entebbe UPPC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BUL away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 37% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Entebbe UPPC and 0.73 for BUL, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 1–017.3%
- 0–116.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Entebbe UPPC
BUL
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blacks Power · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ntugasaze · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataka · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Express · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Entebbe UPPC · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.