Envigado vs Orsomarso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Envigado and 0.69 for Orsomarso, a combined total of 1.76. That distribution gives Envigado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

76.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.07 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Envigado home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orsomarso away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Envigado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Envigado and 0.69 for Orsomarso, a combined 1.76 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Envigado win44%

Draw33%

Orsomarso win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–018.4%
0–017.2%
1–112.7%
0–111.9%
2–09.8%

Recent form

Envigado

2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bogota FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Depor FC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Cartagena · 0-0 (D)

Orsomarso

2026-10-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Quindio · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-01T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Envigado · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Ind. Yumbo · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Depor FC · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Internacional Palmira	34	17	10	7	12	61
2	Envigado	36	15	13	8	15	58
3	Quindio	34	16	10	8	9	58
4	Real Cartagena	36	15	12	9	14	57
5	Union Magdalena	34	15	10	9	14	55
6	Tigres FC	34	12	11	11	6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	11	11	6	8	44
8	Bogota FC	34	9	13	12	-7	40
9	Barranquilla	34	10	9	15	-3	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	9	10	9	3	37
11	Patriotas	28	9	8	11	-5	35
12	Popayan	27	7	10	10	-2	31
13	Orsomarso	28	7	10	11	-7	31
14	Depor FC	27	5	9	13	-15	24
15	Leones FC	28	5	9	14	-24	24
16	Real Santander	28	4	11	13	-18	23
1	Internacional Palmira	15	12	2	1	16	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	12	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	10	29
5	Real Cartagena	15	7	5	3	8	26
6	Bogota FC	15	6	5	4	2	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	1	20
8	Tigres FC	15	5	5	5	1	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	-1	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Popayan	15	2	7	6	-5	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Leones FC	15	2	4	9	-16	10
15	Depor FC	15	1	6	8	-11	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	-14	7
1	Envigado	6	3	2	1	3	11
1	Real Cartagena	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Quindio	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Union Magdalena	6	2	3	1	4	9
3	Internacional Palmira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Barranquilla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
4	Tigres FC	6	1	1	4	-4	4
4	Bogota FC	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Ind. Yumbo	13	7	4	2	9	25
2	Real Cundinamarca	13	7	3	3	8	24
3	Tigres FC	13	6	5	2	9	23
4	Popayan	12	5	3	4	3	18
5	Patriotas	13	5	3	5	-1	18
6	Real Cartagena	13	4	5	4	5	17
7	Quindio	13	4	5	4	-2	17
8	Real Santander	13	3	7	3	-4	16
9	Internacional Palmira	13	4	4	5	-4	16
10	Depor FC	12	4	3	5	-4	15
11	Envigado	13	2	8	3	1	14
12	Union Magdalena	13	3	5	5	-2	14
13	Orsomarso	13	3	5	5	-3	14
14	Bogota FC	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Leones FC	13	3	5	5	-8	14
16	Barranquilla	13	3	4	6	-3	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.