Envigado vs Real Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Envigado and 0.90 for Real Santander, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Envigado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Envigado home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Santander away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Envigado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 30% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Envigado and 0.90 for Real Santander, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Envigado win41%

Draw30%

Real Santander win29%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–014.8%
1–113.3%
0–012.9%
0–111.6%
2–08.5%

Recent form

Envigado

2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bogota FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Depor FC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Cartagena · 0-0 (D)

Real Santander

2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Envigado	37	16	13	8	16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	17	10	8	11	61
3	Quindio	35	17	10	8	10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	16	12	9	17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	16	10	9	15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	12	12	11	6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	12	11	6	11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	10	13	12	-6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	10	9	16	-4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	9	11	9	3	38
11	Patriotas	29	9	8	12	-8	35
12	Popayan	29	7	10	12	-6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	7	10	12	-8	31
14	Depor FC	29	6	9	14	-15	27
15	Real Santander	29	5	11	13	-17	26
16	Leones FC	29	5	9	15	-25	24
1	Internacional Palmira	15	12	2	1	16	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	12	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	10	29
5	Real Cartagena	15	7	5	3	8	26
6	Bogota FC	15	6	5	4	2	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	1	20
8	Tigres FC	15	5	5	5	1	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	-1	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Popayan	15	2	7	6	-5	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Leones FC	15	2	4	9	-16	10
15	Depor FC	15	1	6	8	-11	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	-14	7
1	Envigado	6	3	2	1	3	11
1	Real Cartagena	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Quindio	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Union Magdalena	6	2	3	1	4	9
3	Internacional Palmira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Barranquilla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
4	Tigres FC	6	1	1	4	-4	4
4	Bogota FC	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Ind. Yumbo	14	8	4	2	12	28
2	Real Cundinamarca	14	7	4	3	8	25
3	Tigres FC	14	6	6	2	9	24
4	Real Cartagena	14	5	5	4	8	20
5	Quindio	14	5	5	4	-1	20
6	Real Santander	14	4	7	3	-3	19
7	Popayan	14	5	3	6	-1	18
8	Patriotas	14	5	3	6	-4	18
9	Depor FC	14	5	3	6	-4	18
10	Envigado	14	3	8	3	2	17
11	Union Magdalena	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Bogota FC	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Internacional Palmira	14	4	4	6	-5	16
14	Orsomarso	14	3	5	6	-4	14
15	Leones FC	14	3	5	6	-9	14
16	Barranquilla	14	3	4	7	-4	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.