Enyimba International Stadium · Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
Enyimba vs Warri Wolves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Enyimba and 0.56 for Warri Wolves, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Enyimba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Enyimba win
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Enyimba home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Enyimba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 21% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Enyimba and 0.56 for Warri Wolves, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.3%
- 2–015.4%
- 3–09.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 2.90 (model 36.4% vs market 31.4%, edge +5.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 2.90 | 31.4% | 36.4% | 2.75 | +5.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.7% | 79.6% | 1.26 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 69.2% | 69.4% | 1.44 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 9.00 | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.80 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.10 | 30.5% | 30.7% | 3.26 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 20.8% | 20.5% | 4.88 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 90.8% | 89.9% | 1.11 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.33 | 68.6% | 63.6% | 1.57 | -5.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Enyimba
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Warri Wolves · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Katsina United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Plateau United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shooting Stars · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kano Pillars · 0-0 (D)
Warri Wolves
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · Enyimba 0-0 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
- 2026-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Enyimba 1-2 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
- 2025-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · Enyimba 1-2 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
- 2021-06-30T15:00:00.000Z · Enyimba 1-1 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
- 2021-03-03T15:40:00.000Z · Enyimba 1-1 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
- 2016-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Enyimba 0-0 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
- 2016-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · Enyimba 2-1 Warri Wolves (NPFL)
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rivers United | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Sporting Lagos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Barau FC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nasarawa United | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Kano Pillars | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Doma United | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Ikorodu City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 11 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Niger Tornadoes | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Kwara United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Shooting Stars | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Abia Warriors | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Kun Khalifat FC | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Enyimba | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Ranchers Bees | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Enyimba win, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.