· Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
Épila vs Atlético Monzón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Épila and 1.33 for Atlético Monzón, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Épila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Épila win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Épila home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Monzón away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Épila to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Épila and 1.33 for Atlético Monzón, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Épila
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Robres · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CDJ Tamarite · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 0-0 (D)
Atlético Monzón
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Zaragoza II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Almudévar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Robres · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Ejea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Brea | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Cuarte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Caspe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | La Almunia | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Épila | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Fraga | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Binéfar | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Huesca II | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Monzón | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Illueca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Andorra CF | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | CDJ Tamarite | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Almudévar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Robres | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Épila win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.