· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Épila vs Zuera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Épila and 0.30 for Zuera, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Épila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Épila win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Épila home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zuera away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Épila to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 18% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Épila and 0.30 for Zuera, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.8%
- 2–020.0%
- 3–012.8%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–16.2%
Recent form
Épila
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Robres · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Caspe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs La Almunia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CDJ Tamarite · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andorra CF · 0-0 (D)
Zuera
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Épila · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Belchite 97 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andorra CF · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrillas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CDJ Tamarite · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Zaragoza II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Ejea | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Caspe | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Fraga | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Cuarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Épila | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Binéfar | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca II | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | La Almunia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Monzón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | CDJ Tamarite | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Almudévar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Andorra CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Illueca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | CD Sietamo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Robres | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
| 18 | Belchite 97 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Épila win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.