· Analysis updated 15:30 UTC
Epinal vs Nancy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Epinal and 1.18 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Epinal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Epinal home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nancy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Epinal
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Furiani-Agliani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haguenau · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chantilly · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Montlouis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dieppe · 1-1 (D)
Nancy
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodez · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nantes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunkerque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · Epinal 0-0 Nancy (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Epinal 2-3 Nancy (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-16T17:00:00.000Z · Epinal 2-4 Nancy (Coupe de France)
- 2024-01-26T18:30:00.000Z · Epinal 1-2 Nancy (Ligue 3)
- 2023-08-18T17:30:00.000Z · Epinal 2-2 Nancy (Ligue 3)
- 2020-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · Epinal 2-3 Nancy (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.