Tonkocheyev Stadium · Referee D. Yevtukhov · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Bukovyna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.70 for Bukovyna, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bukovyna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 2–012.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbon Cherkasy · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)
Bukovyna
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Bukovyna (Premier League)
- 2026-07-04T08:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-0 Bukovyna (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-26T10:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2024-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-0 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2023-11-12T10:30:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-0 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2023-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2022-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2022-08-27T10:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
- 2021-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 Bukovyna (Druha Liga - Group A)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.