Espoonlahden urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 12:22 UTC
EPS vs GrIFK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for EPS and 1.08 for GrIFK, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives EPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EPS win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EPS home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GrIFK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for EPS and 1.08 for GrIFK, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
EPS
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
GrIFK
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NJS · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Musa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NJS · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EPS win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.