Espoonlahden urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
EPS vs HJS Akatemia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for EPS and 1.32 for HJS Akatemia, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives EPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EPS win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EPS home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HJS Akatemia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for EPS and 1.32 for HJS Akatemia, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.7%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
EPS
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
HJS Akatemia
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs P-Iirot · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Honka · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ilves II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs EPS · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EPS win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.