Espoonlahden urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 12:22 UTC
EPS vs Honka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for EPS and 2.20 for Honka, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Honka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Honka win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EPS home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Honka away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Honka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 20% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for EPS and 2.20 for Honka, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–36.7%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
EPS
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
Honka
- 2026-10-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ÅIFK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs JBK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JBK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ÅIFK · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Honka win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.