Espoonlahden urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 11:27 UTC
EPS vs NJS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.56 expected goals for EPS and 0.64 for NJS, a combined total of 4.21. That distribution gives EPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EPS win
89.1% probability
Expected goals
3.56 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EPS home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NJS away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EPS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.56 goals for EPS and 0.64 for NJS, a combined 4.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.2%
- 4–010.0%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–17.2%
- 5–07.1%
Recent form
EPS
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 3-2 (W)
NJS
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GrIFK · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Musa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GrIFK · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EPS win, at 89.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.