Espoonlahden urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 11:33 UTC
EPS vs P-Iirot Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for EPS and 1.65 for P-Iirot, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives EPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EPS win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EPS home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
P-Iirot away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
EPS
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs P-Iirot · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ÅIFK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Honka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HJS Akatemia · 4-1 (W)
P-Iirot
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs EPS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves II · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ÅIFK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Honka · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · EPS 2-0 P-Iirot (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · EPS 1-2 P-Iirot (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · EPS 3-2 P-Iirot (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2023-06-04T15:30:00.000Z · EPS 0-1 P-Iirot (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2019-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · EPS 4-4 P-Iirot (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
- 2019-06-29T14:00:00.000Z · EPS 1-1 P-Iirot (Kakkonen - Lohko B)
Kakkonen - Lohko B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EPS win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.